Turkish Lira Update

The scenario I outlined in my March 11th post has been unfolding as forecast. The ruling party has won the local elections, President Obama has made a successful visit to Turkey and Turkey has entered serious negotiations with the IMF. The rumors are that the two sides are discussing a $30-$40 billion stand-by agreement for a 3-4 year horizon to enable Turkey to undertake long term reforms. The Turkish Lira has appreciated against the US dollar from 1.82 to 1.56 recently, a 14% gain.